tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15329279.post1915289019057384641..comments2023-08-25T05:18:29.312-06:00Comments on Madville Times: Herseth Sandlin vs. Noem: Most Critical Issue, Least Critical Questioncaheidelbergerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03261598066395322681noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15329279.post-30110682143527789492010-09-08T19:29:21.943-06:002010-09-08T19:29:21.943-06:00Bob Ellis often reminds us that the United States ...Bob Ellis often reminds us that the United States is not a democracy and trusts the Kochs of the nation to sustain job creation by exploiting resources.<br /><br />Rather than calling President Obama's inclination to let the Bush tax cuts lapse a movement toward socialism maybe it is really just more of a movement closer to democracy by asking those with the most to lose to pay more.larry kurtzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06855417104900624838noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15329279.post-73982343174962007632010-09-08T14:26:44.243-06:002010-09-08T14:26:44.243-06:00Cory,
You can't compare the DCCC commissioned...Cory,<br /><br />You can't compare the DCCC commissioned poll to Rasmussen. Totally different metholodologies and purposes. <br /><br />Regarding your charge of bias (because you don't like what the numbers say?), here are some comments about Rasmussen's veracity.<br /><br />Used by Real Clear Politics on par with Gallup, PPD (Dem firm), Survey USA, Quiniapac, etc. If they believed they were inherently biased, they wouldn't be included in their averages.<br /><br />Slate Magazine and The Wall Street Journal: "one of the most accurate polling firms for the 2004 United States presidential election and 2006 United States general elections."<br /><br />Politico: "Rasmussen's 2008 presidential-election polls "closely mirrored the election's outcome"."<br /><br />Nate Silver (liberal who Fleming likes to reference): "Rasmussen – with its large sample size and high pollster rating – would probably be the one I'd want with me on a desert island."<br /><br />Nate Silver this April: Believes the filters (used by every reputable poll) are off during this election cycle because this year "Rasmussen's "house effect" was skewing its polling numbers and "to believe that Rasmussen is getting it right: you also have to believe that almost everyone else is getting it wrong." <br /><br />Silver also doesn't believe the difference can fully be explainedby Rasmussen polling only "likely voters" rather than all adults.<br /><br />However, as someone who watches the polls regularly where the other polls are moving toward Rasmussen's numbers, Silver (who I too think is a great statistician) might end up retracting his comments. In fact, Gallup just announced they have adjusted their filters to account for the intensity factor (Republicans more likely to vote this cycle where the opposite was true in 2008).Troy Jonesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15329279.post-69879903947944253372010-09-08T09:49:14.801-06:002010-09-08T09:49:14.801-06:00Indeed, the only big polls out there are the GOP-r...Indeed, the only big polls out there are the GOP-run Rasmussen polls and the internal Dem polls, both fraught with bias. <a href="http://madvilletimes.blogspot.com/2010/06/poll-results-democrats-get-out-vote.html" rel="nofollow">My June poll</a> might be just a reliable!<br /><br />The SD GOP did not hit the polls with unprecedented force in the June primary. Will they catch the wave and turn out in big numbers in November? And will we be able to wake up the Dems to do the same?<br /><br />Win or lose, slowing down on the road is good advice for everyone, including <a href="http://www.rapidcityjournal.com/news/article_268757a4-b876-11df-a43e-001cc4c03286.html" rel="nofollow">Kristi and family</a>.caheidelbergerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03261598066395322681noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15329279.post-37061051396098908602010-09-07T14:56:26.298-06:002010-09-07T14:56:26.298-06:00According to "Dakota Midday" on SDPB tod...According to "Dakota Midday" on SDPB today (Tuesday), a recent poll shows SHS leading Noem by nine points.<br /><br />If Marking gets 2 percent of the vote, and assuming all of those votes would otherwise go to Noem, then SHS leads Noem by 11 points.<br /><br />Polls have bias, of course; in another recent poll, Noem leads by several percentage points. In any case, Republicans had better come out in unprecedented force if they want Noem to replace SHS next year.<br /><br />I suspect that Noem's traffic tickets and apparent disregard for the legal consequences have hurt her considerably. I still plan to vote for her -- but only because of my (perhaps irrational) distrust of a continuing left-wing "regime."<br /><br />Even that personal bias could change! My advice to Kristi Noem: Stay away from Exit 30 going west on I-90. I almost got killed there on Labor Day, and I haven't had a speeding ticket since 1975.Stan Gibiliscohttp://members.authorsguild.net/stangibnoreply@blogger.com