This blog printed on 100% recycled electrons.
Dakota War College gazes southward and comments on the possibility of his friend Russell Olson jumping from the State House to Senate in District 8 this year. He also comments scornfully on the possibility of my neighbor Gerry Lange challenging Olson for that Senate seat, citing some Lange's past comments that didn't sit well with some voters.
Now I've heard the story three ways -- Gerry's running for Senate, Gerry's running for House, Gerry's not running for anything. Conventional wisdom might suggest that Lange would be a longshot if he did throw in for either the House or the Senate. He came in third in 2006, behind Olson and Rep. Gassman. Gerry is getting up there in years, and folks in 2006 seemed to be thinking Gerry'd had his turn and it was time to give someone younger a try.
But don't count Gerry out just yet. He is a tough competitor and energetic campaigner. He's got plenty of fire in the belly, and as Fred Thompson's folks will tell you, fire in the belly is essential. Russ won in 2006 in part because he spent $32,000, and in part perhaps because he claimed the "change" vote. Folks who wanted a different face (or the one they saw grinning from all the expensive full-color billboards) picked Russ, then split their votes between the two incumbents, Dave and Gerry. Dave keeps his head down and doesn't make anyone mad, while Gerry takes some unpopular stands, meaning that in a choice between Dave and Gerry, there are more people who'd have an axe to grind against Gerry.
But in a one-on-one contest between Gerry and Russ, the situation is different. Russ is no longer the new guy. His record doesn't show a lot of new initiatives; he might easily be cast as part of the moneyed establishment (that's the plutocracy, right, Mr. Sibson?). Dems may well unite behind Gerry to keep the Republicans from taking the District 8 Senate seat. PP may think Russ would coast to an easy victory in the Senate, but a challenge from Gerry could be more interesting than the conventional wisdom might portray it.
We thus look eagerly toward March 25, the petition deadline, to see whose hats end up in which ring.
Hide Fido (by Andy Horowitz)
-
I coined Noem as the ‘Palin of South Dakota’ when she ran for the state
house, seems I nailed it; America: meet your new Secretary of Homeland
Security. Sh...
3 hours ago
Sorry Cory, I disagree on youir analysis.
ReplyDeleteRuss overcame MASSIVE odds to win because he was a single candidate in a race where they could pick two.
Whenever any Republican picked him, by default they also voted against him if they exercised their second vote. Dem voters could cast all their votes against him, and ticket splitters made up the balance.
I'd guess that he had to be the first or second choice in nearly every instance to poll like he did.
Whether you like to admit it or not, when it comes to the 2006 election, Russ was "da bomb" and everyone was tired of Gerry.
You're right, I don't like to admit it, but I can't deny Gerry-fatigue played a role in 2006.
ReplyDeleteNonetheless, the dynamic of a one-on-one race would be different. A lot of folks apparently did not exercise their second vote in 2006: in Lake County, the average number of votes cast was 1.46. And 60% of Lake County voters who bothered with the house race were still willing to mark Gerry's name in 2006. (Unfortunately, 63% marked Dave, and 77% marked Russ.) Voters feeling the bipartisan urge marked Russ no matter what and took their pick between Dave and Gerry. That's an advantage for the lone Republican among those voters, an advantage that disappears in a one-on-one race.
But then, this could all just be wishful thinking. After all, I'm the guy who still wonders if Kucinich could re-emerge as the Dems nominee after a brokered convention....