Primary Notes: Musings from an Amateur

Hey, I'm no expert, just a guy one a couch looking at charts and wondering what our grandkids will read in their history books.

I admit it: I'm a bad student. During class last night, while we reviewed project management and covered requirements engineering, I had my Super Tuesday Google Ticker up on my screen, right next to my notes. I watched the percentages jump about. I saw Ron Paul actually lead one race -- no, not in Montana, where the Freemen came out of their compounds long enough to give Paul a second-place finish with a full quarter of the vote, but in our other neighbor, Minnesota. Yes, for one brief, shining, Libertarian moment, Ron Paul was winning Minnesota. Then a second precinct reported, and things got back to normal.

The results are still incomplete, but here's what I see this morning (and remember, not all precincts are in yet, so these numbers may change by lunch!):

GOP: McCain wins 9 states, Romney 6, Huckabee 5. Each man wins his home state, but Huckabee does so by the largest margin. Huckabee plays well down south close to home (Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee), but not by as big a margin as Romney does north and west and farther from home (Minnesota, Montana, Colorado, Alaska). But the McCain train is up to steam, with a strong lead in convention delegates: 597, versus Romney's 240, Huckabee's 178, and Paul's 14.

Dems: How do we pick a winner here? At 6:30 a.m. CST, my chart shows Obama winning 14 staes, Clinton 8. Delegates are a strange and magical formula, thanks to the Dems' "superdelegates" (i.e., the Dem fancy-pants who get to do whatever they want). At the moment, Real Clear Politics puts Clinton at 897, Obama at 822.

Electoral College: Now for a stat that may mean nothing: if the states in play yesterday had been offering electoral votes instead of delegates, here's who would have won what:

Candidate	States	Electoral Votes
Clinton	8	147
Obama	14	99
McCain	9	160
Huckabee	5	39
Romney	7	45

Dems Margins of Victory: Clinton's winning percentages at this point are all in the 50s but one, her personal best 69% win back "home" in Arkansas. In her current home state of New York, she beat Obama 57%-40%. Clinton's average percentage in states she won: 56%.

Obama's winning percentages range from 49% to 80% -- 80% in Idaho (?!). He won Alaska and his mom's birthplace Kansas by 74%. He scored in the 60s in Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, and North Dakota. In Illinois, his home state and Clinton's birthplace, he won 64%-33%. Obama's average winning percentage: 62%.

Reid Wilson talks more about the margins of victory and implications at Real Clear Politics.

Pokey states: The Google gadget shows California, New Mexico, and Alaska still counting. As of 6:50 a.m. CST, New Mexico still has only 28% of precincts counted. Aren't they always slow on the draw? Maybe they have California's excuse: perhaps 40% of the ballots were cast absentee. And Alaska -- well, heck, if I had to climb mountains and fight polar bears, I might be slow in reporting my ballot count as well.

So who's gonna win? No nomination prognostication from me today -- I'm still waiting for my head to catch up with my heart. But I can pick one winner: us voters. We have a real campaign, a real test of these candidates that will last longer than a couple weeks, and a real chance for more states (maybe even South Dakota? please?) to cast votes that make a difference.

Update 08:15 CST: O.K., just a little more amateur number-crunching (also known as utterly meaningless statistics!): I looked again at those Electoral College numbers. If they have any relevance at all, one could argue from them that McCain is stronger than either Dem, but that Clinton has the better shot at catching up. But when I look at the numbers of Dems and GOPers who showed up in each state, I see a big advantage for Dems. Dems are more fired up; if they flood the voting booths in November the way they're doing now, they can beat McCain with either Clinton or McCain. Key states in this analysis: New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. All three of those states voted for Clinton, but all three had much bigger Dem turnout than GOP. Whether Clinton or Obama is at the top, come November, the they'll go Dem. Total electoral votes: 58, exactly the difference between Clinton and Obama in the Electoral College equivalents I calculated above.

Like I said, meaningless, but still fun numbers to play with!

Update 08:42 CST: Bill Harlan and I both are looking for those CNN trucks in June.

Update 14:00 CST: The Dems race is close any way you cut it. The Carpet Bagger Report notes the following numbers:

1. Obama won more states, but Clinton won 4 of the 5 biggest states.
2. Clinton won Tuesday's popular vote 49% to 48%...
   
3. ...but add up the states each candidate won, and Obama comes out ahead 49% to 48%.

And nobody knows what the delegate count is. 841-837 Obama? 818-730 Clinton? 974-906 Clinton?

Among the only certain conclusions: it's close, and every vote matters. Just the way I like it!

Update 17:25 CST: Now Don Jorgenson at KELO is looking for the CNN trucks.