Obama and Osama: Same Theory, Different Response

Senator Obama is not a Muslim. He did not attend a madrassa. He is not going to destroy America or Christianity. (The uncivil discourse that spreads such lies is a much greater threat to our Republic.)

But as I ruminate further on Obama's analysis of the frustrations of America's working class, it occurs to me that there is a connection between what Obama said and how we've come to understand what Osama bin Laden does. (Don't flame me yet, Todd -- hear me out!)

Obama's comments that economically disenfranchised voters gravitate toward values issues is nothing new. It's actually the accepted conventional wisdom on how Osama bin Laden has been able to build al-Qaeda. The culture wars we get here in American politics over guns, gays, and God are the relatively benign domestic version of the jihad we get from the Islamo-anarcho-fascists overseas.

I refer you to The 9/11 Commission Report, Chapter 2, "The Foundation of the New Terrorism" (emphasis mine):

Unlike the oil states (or Afghanistan, where real economic development has barely begun), the other Arab nations and Pakistan once had seemed headed toward balanced modernization. The established commercial, financial, and industrial sectors in these states, supported by an entrepreneurial spirit and widespread understanding of free enterprise, augured well. But unprofitable heavy industry, state monopolies, and opaque bureaucracies slowly stifled growth. More importantly, these state-centered regimes placed their highest priority on preserving the elite's grip on national wealth. Unwilling to foster dynamic economies that could create jobs attractive to educated young men, the countries became economically stagnant and reliant on the safety valve of worker emigration either to the Arab oil states or to the West. Furthermore, the repression and isolation of women in many Muslim countries have not only seriously limited individual opportunity but also crippled overall economic productivity.¹⁶

By the 1990s, high birthrates and declining rates of infant mortality had produced a common problem throughout the Muslim world: a large, steadily increasing population of young men without any reasonable expectation of suitable or steady employment -- a sure prescription for social turbulence. Many of these young men, such as the enormous number trained only in religious schools, lacked the skills needed by their societies. Far more acquired valuable skills but lived in stagnant economies that could not generate satisfying jobs.

...Frustrated in their search for a decent living, unable to benefit from an education often obtained at the cost of great family sacrifice, and blocked from starting families of their own, some of these young men were easy targets for radicalization [National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States, The 9/11 Commission Report, New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2004].

Obama has rightly identified an American strain of the economic and sociological forces that have allowed al-Qaeda to wreak such havoc. Bin Laden responds to economic disenfranchisement by turning it into hatred and destruction. Al-Qaeda has no economic plan: the last thing bin Laden wants is for people to have good jobs and quality of life. Give people economic hope, and al-Qaeda's power disappears.

China's government takes advantage of this same truth from the opposite direction: since Tiananmen Square, they've been counting on a booming economy to keep a billion-plus Chinese from getting restless and turning to values issues... like democracy and human rights. Ouch. The argument cuts both ways... but it works.

I am not saying -- and neither was Obama -- that small-town voters are gun-toting rubes who believe in God only because of small paychecks. I'm definitely not saying that American workers who can't get a fair shake from the wealthy elites are all potential jihadis for bin Laden.

I am saying that Obama's assessment of economics and voting habits fits with other broadly accepted non-partisan thinking on how a stagnant economy can make voters feel disenfranchised and drive their attention to other issues. Some -- spin doctors, culture warriors, jihadis -- use that thinking to divide people further. Obama's hope is that he can bring those voters back to the table and give them hope that they can tackle economic issues and bring good jobs to Main Street.