Primary and General Elections: Different Worlds

During the general election, the primary election process can look like much ado about nothing. Issues that look huge in the heat of an intra-party battle disappear once we get to the main event.

Consider the Hispanic vote: During the primary season, the pundits (and Clintonistas) made much fuss about Obama's weakness among Hispanic voters. Clinton beat Obama two to one among Hispanics on Super Tuesday. The story line made good conflict for the commentators, even though some commentators even in January could see there wasn't as much "there" there as the media might wish. After Super Tuesday, Clinton's Hispanic advantage evaporated, although the Clinton camp spun right through May that her strength among Hispanics was inarguable and that McCain would "trounce" Obama among Hispanic voters.

Some of Clinton's highly placed Hispanic backers are still fighting the primary battle and asking for "more outreach" from the Obama camp. But (hat tip to the oft-quoted Star Parker) a Gallup poll this week finds that Obama "dominates" McCain among Hispanic voters, 59% to 29%. Only 18% of the Hispanic voters surveyed identified themselves as Republicans.

The split is notable given that President Bush won 35% and 40% of the hispanic vote in 2000 and 2004, respectively—not exactly a "trouncing" of Gore and Kerry, but enough to help Bush win. Trailing by 30 points suggests McCain may be reversing a building advantage the GOP thought they could count on.

But the primary chatter no longer matters. However the votes went from January to June, a big majority of Hispanic voters are now saying ¡Sí se puede! Welcome to the new world; on with the general election.