Oh, what's that you say, Dr. Goss?
A January survey of business leaders in nine Midwest and Plains states suggests that the region's economy is picking up steam.
The Business Conditions Index for the Mid-America region made a healthy jump in January, to 54.7, up from December's 50.3 and November's 47.5.
...Creighton University economist Ernie Goss said in the report released Monday that "the likelihood of dipping back into recessionary territory has diminished significantly" ["Midwest Economy Improves," AP via KJAM, 2010.02.02].
Curses! Facts again!
Dr. Curd should spend less time playing with Windows Movie Maker and more time practicing medicine.
After reviewing the Creighton Economic Forecasting group summary, here :
ReplyDeletehttp://www.creighton.edu/irm/headlines/midamericabusinessconditionsdecemberindex/index.php
The South Dakota specific information seemed to say :
"South Dakota: South Dakota's leading economic indicator sank below growth neutral for the month to 46.0 from 50.2 in November. Components of the overall index for December were new orders at 54.7, production, or sales, at 45.6, delivery lead time at 53.1, inventories at 33.1, and employment at 43.4. “Over the past decade, South Dakota lost more than 7,000, or 17 percent, of its manufacturing employment. Most losses were due to productivity growth of more than 65 percent over the decade. While I expect the state’s employment level to remain flat for the first half of 2010, manufacturers in the state will shed jobs for the first two quarters as productivity gains cut into employment levels,” said Goss."
Perhaps Mr. Curd was quoting from Mr. Goss's actual work rather than someone elses analysis of it.
Or, there is always the possibility I am missing something.
Chad Bishop - Rapid City
Cory, preliminary polls show SHS with a moderate lead at this post.
ReplyDeleteHer vote against the House version of the Baucus-driven
Health care bill seems to have buoyed her thus far; she clearly knows who her constituency is better than Curd
does.
Goss' research shouldn't touch her irrespective of her opponents' rhetoric painting her otherwise.
Chad, good job on the homework! I appreciate that attention to detail.
ReplyDeleteBut I'm still puzzled. South Dakota's economy is going down. That means the overall numbers for the rest of the Midwest must be better than the average. So the stimulus would appear to be working in other places but not in South Dakota. So SHS voted for stimulus that's working other places but not in SD. Hmmm... is that because of some flaw in the bill or in SHS's thinking or Obama's national policy... or is it more logical to suspect that could be because of some unique local characteristic of South Dakota, something caused by the folks in charge of our state specifically... like, oh, say, R. Blake Curd and the Republicans in Pierre?
You are most welcome, though it seems you will find the answer you are wanting to hear and think.
ReplyDeleteIMHO, I don't think local and state politicians have much to do with it.
This region as a whole would benefit from rising commodity prices ranging from energy to grain. From what I can discern, the rise in these prices are not currently a function of supply and demand but of hedging against our government borrowing and printing money.
You might successfully argue that our representatives to DC have been ineffectual at bringing back South Dakota's share of the pork. I guess I prefer to think of them as principled in refusing to act like a pig at the trough but then again it could be that they are trying and just failing.
Since Keynes is again all the rage perhaps some of his writing can be instructive (he seemed to have some moments of clarity) : http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/shared/minitext/ess_inflation.html
The perceived inequity during a period when a government borrows and prints too much can be hard to account for. Let's hope you'll be "one in a million".
If credit is to our country like drugs are to an addict, then we have been given the biggest speedball in our history as of late. Trying to decipher behavior of an addict in such conditions cannot really be done with logic and reason.
However you may be on to something, in an environment of borrowing and printing, where most of it flows to Wall Street and DC, this is likely a function of political effectiveness. Though I would have to respectfully disagree with you and look to our folks in DC as the ineffectual / principled ones ... depending on your view. I am hoping for principle.
Respectfully,
Chad Bishop - Rapid City