Thune Barely Blipping on Iowa Presidential Radar

Peter Roff at U.S. News and World Report last month called Senator John Thune's deficit reduction plan a "compelling package" that "could launch a 2012 Presidential bid."

Thune had better hope his Iowa neighbors start feeling more compelled. Just as his plan made the news, TheIowaRepublican.com ("News for Republicans, by Republicans") polled 399 likely Republican voters about their 2012 GOP Presidential preference. The winner: Mike Huckabee. The numbers:

1. Mike Huckabee: 22%
2. Mitt Romney: 18%
3. Newt Gingrich: 14%
4. Sarah Palin: 11%
5. Ron Paul: 5%
6. John Thune and Tim Pawlenty: 1%
7. Rick Santorum: less than 1%
8. Haley Barbour and Rick Perry: 0%

Thune and Pawlenty score 1% in their backyard. That seems... less than encouraging. Let's compare Thune's current Iowa standing with the poll numbers of another lanky Midwestern basketball player considering a run for President a year-plus out from the Iowa caucuses.

1. In June 2006, a Des Moines Register poll showed John Edwards and Hillary Clinton on top at 30% and 26%, John Kerry at 12%, and Iowa's own Tom Vilsack at 10%. Low percenters were Mark Warner and Evan Bayh. Barack Obama is not mentioned.
2. In September 2006, Barack Obama made a big campaign trip to Iowa to boost Iowa Democrats on the 2006 ballot.
3. In an October 2006 Iowa poll, Obama placed third at 13%, behind Edwards at 36% and Clinton at 16%.
4. In a December 2006 Iowa poll, Barack Obama tied for first place. The one-percenters in that poll: Evan Bayh, Bill Richardson, and Joe Biden. (Gee: maybe Thune will be veep!)

Maybe Thune is planning to jump in relatively late, the way he did against Daschle in 2004. If he is, he's going to have a steep curve to climb to break out in Iowa. Maybe he should start lining up some campaign stops for Grassley, Branstad, et al.