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Friday, September 10, 2010

Rasmussen: Herseth Sandlin Leads Noem 47-45

We in the blogosphere have had some discussion about the accuracy of Republican-run Rasmussen polling. But they're the only folks polling the South Dakota Congressional race consistently, so perhaps we can at least learn something by comparing their numbers.

Their latest poll shows incumbent Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin leading GOP challenger Kristi Noem 47% to 45%. That reverses Noem's easy leads throughout the summer, while everyone was at the lake with Dennis.

Nitty gritty: The poll was conducted September 8. That gave Noem's court-dodging and arrest warrants time to sink in with the electorate, as well as Senator Al Franken's visit in support of the Democratic incumbent. That also gave voters time to soak in coverage of Noem's dismal debate performances alongside efforts to ape the campaign faux-blogging that helped Thune beat Daschle in 2004. Alas, it does not capture the impact of ratty-capped Kristi's posed horsewomanship on ABC this morning.

...speaking of which, I just heard Kristi Noem speed through all of her worst lines on her reckless driving record in under 12 seconds (start at 5:40 in ABC's video): "I was on an Interstate... South Dakota's got a lot of open flat miles... always been my nature to be in a hurry and get things done." Noem continues to rationalize her irresponsibility... and she never mentions skipping court.


  1. I put this on SDWC too. It's a bunch of interesting numbers (at least to me.):

    The recent Dem poll:
    SHS 50%, Noem 39%, Marking 4% (MOE ± 4.9)

    New Rassmussen:
    SHS 47%, Noem 45%, Marking 4% (MOE ± 4.5)

    Compare to:
    Last month’s Rasmussen:
    SHS 42%, Noem 51%, Marking 3% (MOE ± 4.5)
    Bottom line, Noem is down 6 and SHS up 5. Recall that in June, after the primary, Noem was at 53%, so she’s down 8 points from her all time high. And SHS is up 6 from her all time low of 42%.

  2. Okay, figure both polls are skewed equally — one left, one right, and average them.

    Here's the result:

    SHS 48.5%, Noem 42%, Marking 4%, Undecided 5.5%.

    What does it all mean, Cory?

    Is B.T. Marking Kristi's Ralph Nader?

    I think so. He's pro-choice.

  3. Good eye, Bill.

    With your help most South Dakotans have concluded that Mrs. Noem is an entitled solipsist repackaged as a Moderately Indefatigable Liberated Fashionista.


  4. I notice the DCCC poll ran it two ways, with and without Marking. Take Marking out, and Kristi get 2%, while SHS stays at 50% and 2% more go undecided. That would support your Nader point, yes?

  5. SHS's recent TV spots are pretty effective, IMO. The "flyover country" spot emphasizes her SD values cred, and who won't like the one with Zachary as a metaphor for congress? (And what parents won't resonate with that image of Stephanie chasing him 'round the house?)

  6. Not sure how to read the Marking vote in the Dem poll actually, Cory. It's a puzzlement. I think the Repubs think he's a spoiler, but my guess is, at the end of the day, he may just represent some "throwaway" votes who would otherwise not vote for either party for whatever reason. I know some Dems in that camp, actually. And some Indys... it's a mixed bag, I'm thinkin'.

  7. TLF+: I must admit, I didn't pay much attention to those ads, largley because they were more soft imagery than real policy (and I disagree with a good chunk of the policy expressed!). But I tend to underestimate the power of such imagery among the general electorate. Thanks for the reminder!

    Bill: BTM's numbers, small as they are, do point that direction. Noem didn't pick up all of his votes when he was left out: it looks like half went to Kristi while half sat on their hands. That reduces his Nader effect... but if it's tight, it seems his small fraction still looks more harmful to Noem, right?

  8. Noem will win this election because the people of South Dakota just like the rest of this nation are sick and tired of the liberal socialist leadership in Washington. This incumbent Dem is responsible for leading this country into disaster. Vote her out along with the other socialist Dems who are ruining this nation. Category 5 is about to hit this country and South Dakota will be in the head winds. Noem will be sent to vote out Nancy Pelosi and help change the direction of this nation. Why would anyone send a Dem back to office after what they have done to this country in just 18 months. Vote them out now!!! Restore America...take back your country!!

  9. Hard to say, Cory. That's why I'm scratching my head a little. Too bad Rasmussen doesn't ask the same question, huh?

  10. Bet the voter at the top of the curve in South Dakota is:
    a) a woman
    b) conservative
    c) old
    d) high school education

    Target audience for both parties. Heidepriem could shake it up by going for all the other voters.

    Strong gun, IM13, reduce the number of counties.

  11. BTW: Herseth by 7 in November. You heard it here first.

  12. Marking the "None of the above" vote comes from the disaffected: a few tribal members, those convicted of misdemeanor crimes, the fringe...we know who we are.


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