Madison Has Pull -- Retail Pull!

Hat tip to the Huron Plainsman for today's surprise dose of heavy-duty local statistical analysis:
The Plainsman's Roger Larsen does some heavy reading to report on the condition of Huron's retail sector [Roger Larsen, "Study: Much of Huron’s Out-of-Town Business Is Coming Here for Groceries," Huron Plainsman, 2007.10.11]. Data from a June 2007 USD report indicates that the Fair City has higher than average retail sales at its food stores but lower than average retail sales in the other measured sectors of building materials and garden supplies, general merchandise, automotive and service, apparel and accessories, furniture and home furnishings, eating and drinking places, and miscellaneous retail. Huron's overall "retail pull" is 82% of the average.

The USD report Larsen cites -- Ralph J. Brown and Bethany Sorenson, "A Study of Retail Trade Patterns in South Dakota," South Dakota Business Review 65(4), June 2007, pp. 1, 4-15 -- focuses on retail performance in South Dakota's 11 biggest cities (conspiracy theory -- I think they picked 11 deliberately just to leave #12 Madison out!). But the study calculated retail pull factors for 201 South Dakota municipalities and published the complete data separately. A look at that chart finds Madison performing better than average, with a pull factor of 1.17.

The finding surprised Mrs. Madville Times and me. We are not alone in our view that Madison sorely lacks retail stores and that too much business leaves town by choice and by necessity (you can't get a potty chair or new toddler shoes in Madison). Yet Madison still comes out doing better than average in terms of retail sales (and sales tax revenue, note our city fathers with gleams in their eyes) per capita.

Unfortunately, as the case with our touted agricultural success, Madison's relative prosperity comes at the expense of other towns. Brown and Sorenson find some of our neighbors have lower than average retail pull rates:

Town	Retail Pull Index (Brown and Sorenson)	Median Income (wikipedia!)
Canova	1.01	$24,500
Chester	not avail!	na
Colman	0.77	$32,143
Colton	0.60	$42,054
Howard	0.81	$26,544
Madison	1.17	$30,434
Oldham	na	na
Ramona	0.17	na
Rutland	na	na
Wentworth	1.49	$33,438

Notice the numbers aren't quite what one might expect. Howard and Colman have less retail pull, in part because of Madison, but also surely because of Mitchell and Sioux Falls (and maybe Brookings). Wentworth manages to clean up, producing 49% more retail activity per capita than the state average, perhaps because of the thriving Wentworth Bar, perhaps because of the ethanol plant. (Hey, do sales at Ricky Roy's, Pelican Landing, and the Hillside count toward Wentworth's tally?) Ramona is in the bottom ten for the state, yet Canova manages to hold its own on this measure. (And why Brown and Sorenson didn't get numbers for Oldham, Ramona, and Chester remains a mystery.)

Now I wondered if the differences might come simply from higher incomes in the towns with higher averages. If the residents have more money, they'll buy more stuff. But local incomes and retail pull don't appear to correlate. Canova's median income is way below average, but their retail pull is right on target. Colman's median income is higher than Madison's, but their retail pull is low. It appear that retail pull is more a matter of pulling out-of-town dollars, which means there will be winners and losers.

Obviously retail pull is just one statistic in the broader picture of business health. Prostrollo's may be selling enough cars to out-of-towners to make up for other lacking retail in the final dollar count, but that doesn't help out the moms and dads who just want some good baby clothes or affordable diapers.

Brown and Sorenson's data is worth reading and studying. An interesting project might be to create a map that represents the retail pull data as colors or isolines (maybe isobars, for retail pressure? please forward me a copy if you make this map!). It may hold some useful lessons for where to focus economic development efforts... or where to encourage folks to throw in the towel and move to Mitchell. But to come up with solutions, we need to see the retail pull data in context. Is it really an indication of economic health? Is that economic health based on building local knowledge and resources or on unsustainable imports?

One thing's for sure -- the Madville Times will be bookmarking USD's Business Research Bureau. Fascinating reading!