South Dakota Leaning Obama

Sibby Online covers his hometown's Dakota Wesleyan University poll on the Democratic presidential primary race. Once he gets past tweaking Pat Powers for being off by two percentage points, we learn that Obama leads Clinton in South Dakota 46% to 34%. Professor Schaff raises reasonable questions about the poll results -- small sample size, no clear screen of respondents for likelihood to vote -- but the 12-point spread still lies outside the 6-point margin of error.

Note that this result comes from the McGovern Center, whose namesake maintains a qualified endorsement of Clinton. Our elder Democratic statesman appears to be in the minority among South Dakota's leading Dems: Obama has won the support of Senator Johnson, Representative Herseth Sandlin, superdelegate Nicholas Nemec (just curious, Mr. Nemec -- do you get to wear a big "S" on your chest at the convention? ;-) ) and now state legislators Nesselhuf, Jerstad, Engels, and Thompson are planning to endorse the Illinois senator. (Clintonistas, feel free to reply with your lists of big SD endorsements!)

According to the DWU numbers, neither Obama or Clinton beats McCain in South Dakota, although Obama keeps McCain's margin on this safe GOP turf to 17 points, while Clinton hands South Dakota to McCain by a 29-point margin. Of course, Obama hasn't started campaigning here yet. Obama has invested in North Dakota, and poll numbers there show he stands a fighting chance against McCain. Bring Obama to South Dakota (and Lake Herman -- are you listening, Nate?), and he could make the November race competitive here, too.