Since the last federal election in 2006, volunteers like Graham combined with the enthusiasm generated by the Obama-Clinton struggle to add more than 2 million Democrats to voter rolls in the 28 states that register voters according to party affiliation. The Republicans have lost nearly 344,000 thousand voters in the same states [Julie Pace & Stephen Ohlemacher, "Democrats Post Big Gains in Voter Registration," AP via Yahoo News, 2008.09.07].
A shift of 2.3 million in party ranks in 28 states. Pure speculation: if the other 22 states have experienced a similar shift, that could mean something like a nationwide shift of 4 million.
George Bush's margin of victory over John Kerry in the 2004 popular vote: 3 million.
These numbers don't make an Obama-Biden landslide a foregone conclusion. But you can bet Obama's people are looking very closely at those numbers, breaking them down state by state and precinct by precinct, the same way they did the numbers during the primaries and caucuses, and organizing folks at the community level to get out the vote and flip the Bush-Kerry numbers from 2004.
P.S.: Remember the Boston Tea Party—good colonial patriots, standing up to British oppression? Community organizers.
It seems to me that Barack Obama is one of the most significant community organizers in history -- that community being, of course, the Democratic Party.
ReplyDeleteI suspect that you are right, Cory, about Dems having the registration edge. Obama has rallied young voters. Also, he must appear as a beacon of hope to people who feel that the current administration has let big corporations exploit and abuse them.
The Republicans have plenty of work to do to restore the people's confidence. I hope that Republicans will come out of this as a better force for the country than has been the case for the past few years. We do have a two-party system. One party can't just go away; it must morph into something else. I see some reform in the person of John McCain, but not much, if any, in our Republican Congresspeople.
Assuming Obama wins and the Dems have substantial control of both the Senate and the House, let's see what the state of the nation is four years from now. I can spin a lot of theories, as can anyone, as to what I imagine might happen; but to be honest, I don't know what will happen.
The Dems are being given the best opportunity, in my opinion, that they have had since the election of John F. Kennedy. If they blow it, it'll be their own cotton pickin' fault.
Don't worry Cory, SD is Republican territory especially among the older folk in our state...and old people vote.
ReplyDeleteWorried? I'm not the one throwing a Hail-Mary pass with my VP pick.
ReplyDelete...and then sequestering her away from the press in Alaska. "Ready on day one" -- ha!
ReplyDeleteRegistration does not equate to voter turnout. If someone comes to your door and asks you to register, has you sign the form and walks away, there's no guarantee that even a small percentage of those "never voters" will vote this year. But it does make for good statistics. The key in this year's election will be minority turnout and the increase of age 40+ white voters from the center of the nation.
ReplyDeleteThe Republican candidate is at least a breath of fresh air and not a Washington insider...and she is a woman. That fact will gain her ticket far more votes than her political beliefs.
ReplyDelete"breath of fresh air"? . . . well, that may be a way to define flatulence in the pews, too.
ReplyDeleteThere is nothing fresh about her lying about the Bridge to Nowhere that see supported in 2006, before and after election to governor, and now pretends it was her idea to cancel it - while keeping the money for the state.
There's nothing fresh about pandering for $27 million in earmarks for a town the size and Madison and, after four years as mayor, leaving the town $20 million in debt.
But the electorate loves novelty so she will attract outsized votes.
where is Palin? why can't she do interviews yet....hasn't her computer chip been installed or is it not working yet? It is laughable that she has to be hidden away somewhere before she can do interviews....sounds like someone with experience I want to be right behind the potential oldest elected first term president.
ReplyDeletePalin has already done an interview with Chuck Gibson for later on this week. What are you talking about, no interviews?
ReplyDeleteI'd just like some calm thinking around here. Is that a problem?