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Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Lembcke, McGowan Top Madison Commission Poll

Here's the first poll of Madison's municipal election season! (Does the Madison Daily Leader bring you this kind of excitement? I think not. Value added, right here, baby!)

In the Madville Times online poll conducted between April 2 and April 6, incumbent Karen Lembcke comes out ahead by six votes, while Mike McGowan overcomes a slow start and rounds up enough clicks for second place.

What do these numbers mean? Well, with 57 total votes and a margin of error of, oh, say, 58, not much.

But that's no fun: let's speculate! With sales tax revenue still up and no major snafus or scandals, we would expect Madison conservatism to put the incumbent on top. However, among the challengers, we might expect Abraham to have a slight online advantage: he's young, and he's the only candidate with a Facebook page. If there is a tech-savvy youth vote to be had in Madison, they didn't turn out for this poll... and they may not even know there's a city election.

I might speculate that McGowan and Downs voters are underrepresented here: one would think that the retirees and working-class folks who might make up McGowan's and Downs's base would not have online polls on their radar. Then again, my Quantcast stats* say my audience skews older and middle income. Quantcast's guess is as good as mine.

But tonight's the big show: Candidates forum! 7 p.m. at MHS! Can Abraham shake up the establishment and break out of the pack? Can McGowan show he's not just mad about his garage? Can Downs rouse the coffee crowd to put him over the top? Can anyone beat the incumbent? Bring your questions and find out!

*My Quantcast stats also suggest that the Madville Times draws more readers and repeat readers than Dakota Voice. Marxist secular humanist commentary beats paranoid fundagelical ranting in South Dakota? Go figure.

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