Madison Recount Done: Abraham Won by 11, not 7

Wow: the Madison recount turned up more errors in the count than I expected. Unfortunately for recount requester Myron Downs, the count went even more in favor of his opponent, Nick Abraham. Evidently the recount this morning produced a net of four more votes for Abraham, meaning he beat Downs by 11 votes, not 7, for second place and a seat on the Commission alongside incumbent winner Karen Lembcke.

Well, Nick, you're in! Welcome to power! So when will you be starting that commissioner blog?

Downs Requests Recount in Madison Commission Vote

Myron, Myron, Myron. I was almost positive Myron Downs would take his seven-vote loss to Nick Abraham and let things be. But yesterday Myron exercised his democratic prerogative and requested a recount, which will take place at City Hall next Friday, May 1, 9 a.m.

Don't expect the city to break out the deck of cards this time. Last year, in an election with twice the turnout, a recount dredged up just one more (questionable) ballot for Scott Delzer. For Downs to stand a chance, City Finance Officer Jeff Heinemeyer will have to find at least seven uncounted ballots or flip four ballots from Abraham's column to Downs's. It doesn't seem likely.

I do not begrudge Myron his legal rights. But a recount reminds us of the statistical error inherent in all of our democratic processes. A recount is just another spin of the wheel, as subject to error as the first count. A more reliable method would be to count the ballots a hundred times and take the average result. But that would be impractically expensive, so we accept our election officials' best effort and get back to work.

Lembcke, Abraham, Win Madison Commission Seats

Madison voters have spoken... well, at least a few of them have. A measly 11% of my neighbors braved the sunshine and 60-degree temps to head downtown and mark a box or two. The unofficial results, as reported by the Madison Daily Leader:

1. Karen Lembcke: 332 (56.7%)
2. Nick Abraham: 291 (49.7%)
3. Myron Downs: 284 (48.5%)
4. Mike McGowan: 184 (31.4%)

Now Myron came within two percentage points of Nick, so under state law (SDCL 9-13-27.3), Myron can ask for a recount. Don't expect him to do it, though. I'm thinking Myron will take the same low-intensity approach to defeat that he takes to campaigning and let it lie.

But seven votes: that's close! That slim margin may reflect the first victory of Web campaigning in local politics. Abraham has a Facebook page, and he used it to remind his friends to get out and vote. Some of his friends didn't even know there was an election ("commissioner of what?"). If even 2% of his 400-plus-person network checked Facebook, saw Nick's reminder, and said, "Oh, yeah! Election day! I better go vote for Nick," boom! That's your margin of victory.

To paraphrase an anonymous commenter: Why would a 30-year-old man have a Facebook page? To help win an election.

Perhaps surprisingly, the final order matches the final poll conducted here at the Madville Times

Madville Times poll, 2009.04.13–14

(Hey, try often enough, you're bound to get at least one right!) I also note with some pleasure that at least one of my endorsees got a seat! A Madville Times endorsement isn't the kiss of death after all.

But the status quo did win, as Karen Lembcke was sent back for another term of cheering on the LAIC and its closed-door activities while Main Street declines and our unemployment rate goes more than double that of Brookings. How well will Abraham fit into this status quo? Will he be a strong, independent voice for his blue-collar constituency? Or will he be brought to heel by a commission stacked with Chamber of Commerce types?

Being an effective commissioner requires teamwork, an ability to communicate, and, when necessary, a willingness to go along to get along (please understand how much it galls me to say that last part). But the best commissioners also have the courage to question, criticize, and change the status quo. Madison needs leaders who can play both sides of that equation.

As I said at Rotary Monday, being a team player doesn't mean saying yes all the time. The best team players hold their team accountable.

As a test of Abraham's mettle: watch how he deals with the LAIC. Let's see if he'll call for conditioning LAIC funding on concrete and transparent performance measures, just like Pierre does. Oh, and let's see if he starts a blog!

Downs and Abraham Best Choices for City Commission

Somewhere Myron and Nick are saying, "Madville Times picked us? Now we're hosed for sure!"

Madison votes tomorrow for two city commission seats. Karen Lembcke wants to keep her seat; Myron Downs would like his old seat back; Nick Abraham and Mike McGowan would like their shot at public service. Whom should we* pick?

If you go strictly by my evaluation of the candidates' performances at our one and only public forum, Downs and Abraham will get your vote. And I'll stick with those numbers as my endorsement.

Of the four candidates, I know Myron Downs best, so I'm biased up, down, left, and right. Myron worked with my dad long time ago. Myron was my boss at Prairie Village. I disagree with him politically on numerous issues, but I know what we disagree on, and I can trust him to be straight with me and anyone else. Myron isn't beholden to anyone. Myron will call a spade a spade, and if he sees the city or the LAIC or anyone else doing something he doesn't approve of or understand, he will speak up, ask questions, or even stop the show until he's satisfied things are being done right.

Nick Abraham presented himself with reasonable confidence and knowledgeability at the forum. He scored well based largely on strong answers to two questions, where he said things in terms of recruiting new businesses and promoting affordable housing that demonstrated he might be willing to bring some genuine progressive thinking to the board. But some of his other answers reflected a lack of vision and a willingness to curry favor with the powers that be. I'm willing to give youth (youth? he's 30, an adult taxpayer just like the rest of us!) a chance, but I want to hear less deference and even more independence.

Karen Lembcke is the voice of the status quo, and even her own words contradict her claims that the status quo is fine. She tells us we can hardly improve on "great," but then tells us our kids wreck things downtown. While other candidates talk about the need to bring more businesses downtown, Lembcke talks about putting up flowers. She says the LAIC is doing a wonderful job, even though our unemployment rate is 2.4 times higher than the rate in neighboring Brookings. (Our LAIC director lives in Brookings; maybe he could take notes at home and bring some ideas back to the office here.) She also too clearly embraces the philosophy of doing business "behind closed doors." Evidently the powers that be prefer to ignore the growing dissatisfaction with how economic development is done (or not done) in Lake County. Lembcke has served on the LAIC committee: perhaps voting her out will get their attention.

Mike McGowan was pals with my dad at Madison High School, along with Lee Yager and Dick Wiedenman. In some folks' book, that counts as a negative. In mine, it's a positive. Mike is an outsider, the kind of guy I naturally gravitate toward. But his answers at the forum weren't good enough. I know life is more than a speech contest, but standing up in front of an audience and explaining your views is a reasonable test of your ability to speak up at a city commission meeting, to evaluate and when necessary challenge the positions of fellow commissioners and the wealthy and powerful interests who will come before you asking the city for favors. Mike's focus on cutting commissioner pay is a drop in the bucket that doesn't tweak the powers that be: the rich folks who aren't on the commission will just chuckle and know the commissioners may be that much more submissive. I don't hear people complaining much about how much commissioners are getting paid; I hear much more complaint about the lack of transparency and accountability in how the city lets the LAIC spend money for the supposedly general welfare.

I could be inclined to flip my scorecard and pick McGowan over Lembcke, just because he is an outsider. But Downs and Abraham can bring enough of that outsider view, plus a little broader grasp of the issues.

Voters, tomorrow, April 14, you get to make your pick. I look forward to hearing and discussing your choices.

*We: alas, I use the pronoun somewhat metaphorically. I live outside city limits, so I don't get to vote. But Madison is still home: among other things, I've gotten most of my education and spent most of my money here. Even if I can't participate, I can't help but identify with the Madison electorate. Besides, Herman Township elections are never this interesting.

Downs, Abraham Give Best Performances at Candidates Forum

Update 2009.04.11: I just finished writing my analyses of the candidates' responses to all ten questions at Tuesday's forum; I have thus updated the scorecard with links to the analysis of each question and brought this Wednesday post back to the top. Enjoy!

----------------original post from Wednesday, April 8, 2009-------------------
Here's my wholly subjective rating of the candidates' performances at the city commission candidates' forum here in Madison last night. The winners last night: Myron Downs and Nick Abraham! The breakdown question by question:

Madison City Commission Candidates Forum Scorecard -- April 7, 2009 (Think baseball: 0 = strike out... 4 = home run!)
Question	Lembcke	Abraham	Downs	McGowan
[Chamber] What will you do to make Madison a better place to live?	0	1	2	2
[Chamber] What infrastructure issues would you make a priority and what needs to be done to fix them?	3	1	2	2
[Dan Bohl] How would you promote cooperation between the city and county?	1	1	3	1
[CA Heidelberger]: How did Pierre beat Madison in recuriting Eagle Creek Software, and what can Madison do to not lose the next similar opportunity?	0	4	1	1
[Jon Hess] When Madison has 7.2% unemployment while Brookings has 3% unemployment and is turning away new businesses, is the LAIC doing an adequate job?	0	0	3	0
[DB] What plans would you make for the federal stimulus dollars?	3	1	2	1
[CAH] How should the city make more use of the Internet, and would you blog as commissioner?	1	2	1	1
[Heath Abraham] How do we improve community involvement?	1	1	1	1
[JH] What happened to the LAIC Main Street program, and what are your ideas for downtown development?	1	0	2	0
[CAH] Would you support removing/reducing the 1000-sq. ft. minimum dwelling size to promote building of more affordable housing?	1	4	0	0
	Lembcke	Abraham	Downs	McGowan
Total	11	15	17	9

Inspired by my KJAM pal Matt, I rank the candidates's responses in baseball terms: 0 for a strike-out, 1 for getting to first base... 4 for a home run. And for me, a home run means the kind of answer that knocks the question out of the park, makes people stand up and cheer, and changes the momentum of the game.

As you can see, there were only two home runs. I came away from last night's forum less than whelmed. Given ten questions, including eight really good ones from the audience, the candidates spent far too much time offering Chamber of Commerce cheerleading talk, avoiding the cores of the issues, and failing to demonstrate any grand vision for good governance (do I ask too much?).

Note that I do not include the opening and closing statements in the ratings: you can view video of those statements from all four candidates here. I will have more detailed analysis throughout the day (I do have a job... and homework!) here and on RealMadison.org. In the mean time, your evaluations and discussion are welcome in the Comments section!

-------------------
Update 2009.04.09 16:25 CDT: See RealMadison.org for analysis of candidate responses to each question and explanation of the Madville Times scorecard! Laugh, cry, gnash your teeth, send your comments, rebut the whole darned thing—Madison political coverage doesn't get any better than this!

Madison City Commission Candidates: Opening and Closing Statements

A Madville Times exclusive! Here's the only video anywhere of the candidates for the Madison City Commission, recorded at tonight's Chamber of Commerce candidates forum. Given the meager turnout, I suspect these videos will boost my online ratings by maybe three viewers... but hey! It's still Madison news! (Stay tuned tomorrow for commentary on the candidates here on the Madville Times and on RealMadison.org!)

Opening Statements:

Closing Statements:

Lembcke, McGowan Top Madison Commission Poll

Here's the first poll of Madison's municipal election season! (Does the Madison Daily Leader bring you this kind of excitement? I think not. Value added, right here, baby!)

In the Madville Times online poll conducted between April 2 and April 6, incumbent Karen Lembcke comes out ahead by six votes, while Mike McGowan overcomes a slow start and rounds up enough clicks for second place.

What do these numbers mean? Well, with 57 total votes and a margin of error of, oh, say, 58, not much.

But that's no fun: let's speculate! With sales tax revenue still up and no major snafus or scandals, we would expect Madison conservatism to put the incumbent on top. However, among the challengers, we might expect Abraham to have a slight online advantage: he's young, and he's the only candidate with a Facebook page. If there is a tech-savvy youth vote to be had in Madison, they didn't turn out for this poll... and they may not even know there's a city election.

I might speculate that McGowan and Downs voters are underrepresented here: one would think that the retirees and working-class folks who might make up McGowan's and Downs's base would not have online polls on their radar. Then again, my Quantcast stats* say my audience skews older and middle income. Quantcast's guess is as good as mine.

But tonight's the big show: Candidates forum! 7 p.m. at MHS! Can Abraham shake up the establishment and break out of the pack? Can McGowan show he's not just mad about his garage? Can Downs rouse the coffee crowd to put him over the top? Can anyone beat the incumbent? Bring your questions and find out!

*My Quantcast stats also suggest that the Madville Times draws more readers and repeat readers than Dakota Voice. Marxist secular humanist commentary beats paranoid fundagelical ranting in South Dakota? Go figure.

Madison City Commission Race: Cast Your Online Vote!

From a casual drive through Madison, you wouldn't know there's a city commission election going on. No signs yet (at least not on my route to campus), no scandal, not even crabby letters to the editor!

But the election's coming on April 14, so let's hear it, neighbors: whom do you want at the helm of our mighty municipality? Check your favorites, one or two, in the Madville Times poll (see the right sidebar), then tell us whom you like here in the comment section. I'll run this poll through next Monday, and post the results of the big candidates forum at MHS next Tuesday.

Candidate Downs Says Locals Know Best

Madison City Commission candidate Myron Downs is working hard to win the Madville Times vote... and I don't even get to vote! Downs tells KJAM that the city should use local people for its various studies, rather than, I assume relying so often on outside consultants who do their windshield tours, write up generic reports, and take big chunks of city cash out of town, of not out of state.

Who would have thought Downs was reading one of my most eggheaded posts of the past few months?

Perhaps Downs will also advocate that those studies be made available to everyone in the community, without cost, so the whole community can check that information and, if it really is valuable, put it to work.

Four for Madison Commission: Downs Joins Race

Tom Wolf must have been kidding with his signs, but Madison's old guard will be represented in the City Commission race: Myron Downs submitted his petition at the last minute Friday to join Nick Abraham, Mike McGowan, and incumbent Karen Lembcke in the race for the two open seats on the commission.

Downs has plenty of local political chops. He served on the city commission for ten years from 1994 to 2003, and ran unsuccessfully for mayor twice, in 2004 and 2006. He's also a serious fiscal conservative... or at least he sounded like one the last time I showed him my Obama pin.

This year's cast of characters looks distinctly bluer around the collar than last year's city commission candidates. I look forward to hearing the contrasting visions Downs, Abraham, McGowan, and Lembcke will bring to the discussion leading up to the April 14 election.