Tea Party Failure: Congress Productive, SD Voter Registration Stable

Supposedly the weird, multi-headed hydra we conveniently if inaccurately label the "Tea Party" aims to change American politics. The 9-12 Project, a subset of that "movement," claims to surround us.

I'm looking around, and I'm not seeing it. Whatever movement is afoot seems only a sideshow (some might say freak show) to the continuing strength of the two existing political parties.

Consider first this commentary from Ronald Brownstein in the National Journal. He finds that Democrats in Washington have pulled together more effectively than they did during the first two years of the Clinton Administration:

Today, Democrats face much the same electoral challenge as they did then: unyielding opposition from congressional Republicans and a growing grassroots conservative backlash. But after some wavering, Democrats this time have mostly responded by closing ranks, especially in the dramatic drive to complete health care reform. Democrats remain divided on immigration, climate change, and some other issues, but they have united enough to make this arguably the most productive legislative session for any Democratic president since Lyndon Johnson [Ronald Brownstein, "Dems' Governing Core Stays Intact," National Journal, 2010.04.03].

Tea Party kicks and spits, Dems get things done. Even where Dems have thrown conservatives a bone with votes dissenting from the President, their Tea Party allegiance isn't terribly deep. Consider the case of South Dakota Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. Our Blue Dog Democrat consistently hewed to the Tea party line on their signature issue, opposing health care reform. But a year of futile baying at the socialist moon was negated by one sudden liberal thunderclap: one liberal doctor challenged SHS, 3834 Democrats signed petitions, and SHS came scampering back to our side, promising not to vote to repeal the newly passed health care reform law just to get Kevin Weiland not to run against her in the primary.

Further evidence of the lack of any real Tea Party impact on politics comes from the latest voter registration numbers released Thursday by the South Dakota Secretary of State. If the Tea "Party" is really fed up with politics as usual, we might expect there to be a surge in citizens seeking alternative parties to carry their message to Washington and Pierre.

Figure 1: South Dakota Voter Registration, "Third" Parties
recent trend to April 1, 2010 (click chart to enlarge)

Since the manufacturing of the Tea Party in February 2009, parties other than the Dems and GOP have shown little growth. Add Constitution, Libertarian, and "Other," and since Feb 2009, South Dakota has seen a net increase of 14 official members in third parties, up 0.71%. A review of the candidates who have filed for South Dakota offices so far reveals only three Constitution Party candidates mustering the courage and signatures to run for statewide office. Not exactly a seismic shift in the political landscape.

Now compare those third party "gains" with the overall picture:

Figure 2: South Dakota Voter Registration, All Parties
recent trend to April 1, 2010 (click chart to enlarge)

See that flat blue line down by zero? That's where those third parties lie relative to registered Republicans, Democrats, and Independents in South Dakota. All three main registrations underwent the expected decline last fall as the Secretary of State struck inactive voters from the rolls. Since that culling, Independents have seen a stronger increase than Republicans by percentage, but there are still more new Republicans since November (1140) than Independents (758).

Now the conservatives among us may be able to cheer their side is gainin while Dems are losing—and indeed, Dems, since November, we've lost another 770 registered voters. But if I were a Tea Party activist who claims my movement isn't just an adjkunct of the Republican Party, I wouldn't be cheering too loudly that my movement has increased registration in that dominant political party.

These facts point to one simple conclusion: the Tea Bags aren't changing anything, at least not the way they want to claim. The Democrats in Congress are taking care of business. South Dakota Democrats are starting to tighten the leash on their Blue Dog Congresswoman (oooo... sounds like a show the RNC would pay money for). No third party is making any serious move to gain members or offer alternatives.

A year in, and on health care and in South Dakota, the Tea party has given us nothing but shouting.

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Update 2001.04.04 07:48 CDT: Cerberus Global Investments chairman Dan Quayle disagrees with me, fretting that the Tea Party is so successful it may go Perot, launch an actual third party, and destroy the GOP's chances of making gains in November. Quayle also recommends taking political cues from Sarah Palin.