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Sunday, May 2, 2010

Poll: Noem Narrows Nelson Numbers, Curd Creamed

The latest Madville Times poll finds Chris Nelson leading in public opinion... but not by as much as I might have expected!

The poll asked, "Which Republican is best qualified to represent South Dakota in Congress?" 190 respondents clicked as follows:
  • Chris Nelson: 90 (47%)
  • Kristi Noem: 83 (44%)
  • R. Blake Curd: 17 (9%)
The numbers were fun to watch over the week. For the first three days, Nelson was creaming the competition, capturing about 70% of the votes as of Thursday. But starting Friday after lunch, Noem supporters came on strong, posting about 70% of the votes in the last 36 hours of the poll, which ended Saturday night.

So, given the standard online self-selecting polling error about the size of Kristi Noem's farm subsidies, what do we learn from these numbers? Here are some possible interpretations:
  1. Nelson's got name.
  2. Noem's got buzz.
  3. Curd's got money that isn't buying much. (As of March 31, Curd had spent twice as much as Noem and Nelson combined.)
  4. Noem's people pay more attention to the Web. Yes, that skews polls... but no more than any good get-out-the-vote push skews election results.
  5. The conservatives who come to this blog to observe and dissect opposing views aren't flocking to Curd. They see Nelson and Noem as better standard bearers for the fall who can better cut into Stephanie Herseth Sandlin's greatest source of strength, the gentle middle who just want to vote for someone who seems nice enough.
Your further analysis of the numbers is welcome!

1 comment:

  1. Here's a good article about the guy we are supporting in Montana's Demo House primary: http://m.missoulian.com/news/state-and-regional/article_d6011ec4-55aa-11df-a6af-001cc4c03286.html

    Jefferson County is rural with a good number of union mine and State employees. My goddess is its Public Health Officer and Emergency Preparedness Director.
    Boulder is home to the Montana Developmental Center.


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