Dem Poll: Herseth Sandlin 51%, Noem 39%

The news keeps getting worse—well, just a little—for Kristi Noem. While the GOP candidate floats another desperate publicity-stunt demand from the Thune playbook (add that to the faux blog, emphasizing her high school basketball career in the glossy flyer she sent me... what Thune plays isn't Kristi running?), a new poll shows Herseth Sandlin leading Noem 51% to 39%. Undecided leads B. Thomas Marking 10% to 1%.

Yeah, yeah, the pollsters are Dems. But hey, why pass up a chance to recycle a headline: How's that trend working for you now, Kristi?

Bennett Petts & Normington conducted this poll last week, September 22–23. They contacted 400 likely South Dakota voters. Margin of error is ±4.9%. Even on this sample, the lead exceeds the margin of error.

If you give these numbers any credence, you might wonder why SHS and Noem are trading places in the driver's seat. Three hypotheses open to testing, in descending order of likelihood:

1. South Dakota voters want more than a pretty face and recycled talking points.
2. Herseth Sandlin's Blue Dog triangulation is working (dang it, dang it, dang it to heck!).
3. Skipping court and getting 20 speeding tickets (and a generic out-of-state ad that reinforces racing highway imagery) don't impress South Dakota voters.
   
4. A little good coverage on the Madville Times goes a long way. ;-)