Votes total: 187
What "major" and "minor" mean remains open to armchair speculation. 10 percentage points in the polls rather than 5? or 2? The difference between victory and defeat? Only November will tell. But these numbers, along with hard commentary from fairer journalists than I, suggest that if Noem's irresponsible driving and court-dodging (not to mention her campaign's ineffective response to the issue) will cost her a significant number of votes.