Democrat-commissioned and local RMA Research releases numbers finding Daugaard's lead has actually shrunk to six points. After the eyebrow-raising 45–32 Daugaard–Heidepriem margin found by RMA several days ago, Team Heidepriem now touts RMA numbers showing the race at 41–35, advantage Daugaard. Another poll from Sioux Falls-based newcomer Nielson Brothers polling finds the governor's race even tighter, 43–40 for Daugaard.
These polls appear to be looking at different realities. The differences from Rasmussen are enormous. In nine days, someone is going to be seriously egg-faced.
Some interesting details from Rasmussen:
- Republicans are more solid behind Daugaard (77%) than we Dems are behind Heidepriem (63%). Given that Republicans outnumber Democrats here, Dems can't win if they don't line up behind their guy.
- "Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters who say the economy is improving support Heidepriem. Daugaard has the backing of 71% of those who feel it is getting worse." That seems odd: the lieutenant governor, the optimistic quasi-incumbent, gets more support from the pessimists. The Democrat voice of change wins a majority among those who think the economy is on the right track.
Update 14:35 CDT: The Nielson Brothers poll on the Congressional race finds Stephanie Herseth Sandlin leading Kristi Noem 41.5% to 40.0%. That's within the margin of error; it's also within the margin of Marking—i.e., Indy B.-Thom, who gets 1.8%. NBP finds 16.5% of the electorate undecided on the Congressional race.