Daugaard Near Sweep; South Dakota Northwest Is Munsterman Country!

Dennis Daugaard won over 50% in a five-man primary last night. Dennis is the big dog.

Daugaard won 59 counties. Where didn't he win?
Secretary Nelson's map shows Scott Munsterman (blue) won his home county of Brookings. In the most interesting geographical note of the primary, he also won the far northwest corner of the state. Harding, Perkins, Corson, and Ziebach: all Munsterman country... representing 1.3% of the state population. Did Munsterman win the great Northwest simply by showing up? Did he campaign there earlier and harder? I've lived in the Lemmon–Bison metroplex, and it isn't exactly the place where I'd think a fancy-pants college-town mayor would light up the crowd. Readers, your explanations for Munsterman's amazing island of support are welcome.

In Shannon County, 56 registered Republicans showed up at the polls and gave Ken Knuppe (green) his single county victory of the night. He beat Daugaard there 27% to 24%. Is his neighboring home county of Custer, Knuppe came in fourth, with 15%, behind Daugaard, Howie, and Munsterman.

Only one county went for Gordon Howie (yellow). Todd County tilted for Howie, giving him 37% over Daugaard's 34%. Howie broke 20% in only six other counties: Meade, Jackson, Harding, Fall River, Custer, Bennett. In his home county of Pennington, where he owes his neighbors $57K in property taxes, Howie got under 19%, second to Daugaard's almost 47% and just barely better than the local paper's endorsee Knudson.

South Dakota Primary Prediction 1: Daugaard 45%

Journalists, start your spell-checkers!

Five men are running for the South Dakota Republicans gubernatorial nomination. The SD-GOP votes tomorrow. Dennis Daugaard will win that vote.

My vote predictions:

1. Dennis Daugaard 45%
   
2. Dave Knudson 23%
   
3. Scott Munsterman 17%
   
4. Gordon Howie 10%
   
5. Ken Knuppe 5%
   

I'm picturing my prediction of Daugaard's number as the middle of a bell curve with a 5% standard deviation. That means I think there's a 68% chance that Daugaard's total will be between 40% and 50%. I think there's a 96% chance he'll win between 35% and 55%.

That also means I think there's a 2.3% chance that Daugaard will draw less than 35% of the vote tomorrow, which is the only circumstance under which any of the fellas vying for second place get a swing at Daugaard in a runoff. Run-off? Hardly.

How do I calculate these numbers? Pure vibe. But here's what generates that vibe:

Efforts to craft an upset narrative acknowledge Daugaard's frontrunner status while ignoring why he has it. He's been winning buy-in from Republican stakeholders by fundraising since 2007. He's got plenty of that money left to go to war with the Dems right away on June 9. He's the lieutenant to one of the most popular sitting governors in the country. That approval is going to be even higher among Republicans... and they're the folks making the choice tomorrow. Shout something about Daugaard being four more years of Rounds, and the folks voting tomorrow are more likely to say, "Cool!"

(Daugaard also has the best story and the best face of the bunch. If he grew Knuppe's mustache, I'd switch registration. Hubba, hubba.)

Joel Rosenthal likes Dave Knudson's ads. Mr. Rosenthal's commentary reminds me of the very different political world I live in. Thanks to the glory of the digital conversion, we no longer receive commercial TV. My picture of the political world is thus very different. I might see an ad once, if someone points it out to me on YouTube, but then it's gone, and I'm back to reading the news and the blogs. The only thing I've read indicating Knudson has made progress with voters is the May Rasmussen poll that shows Knudson and Daugaard as the only Republicans who poll stronger than Democratic challenger Scott Heidepriem.

The Munsterman wave is alive and well... in the imaginations of the pro-Munsterman blogosphere. Pat Powers insists that big media support for Knudson "continues Daugaard's rapid erosion of voters." Various commenters offer lots of "everyone I talk to likes Munsterman" talk. "Everyone I talk to" is the perfect introduction to the self-selecting and thus invalid sample. I have yet to hear any objective evidence from any objective observer that Munsterman or anyone else is putting a dent in Daugaard's support.

Journalist Bob Mercer does entertain the Munsterman question. He says any purported Munsterman surge is either a hoax or "the greatest stealth groundswell of modern times in South Dakota politics." Mercer says Team Munsterman will be seen as "the pre-eminent grassroots geniuses" of South Dakota politics "if their talk comes true." Given Mercer's opinion of blogs versus good newspapers, I suspect that when he uses genius and blogger in the same sentence, he's joking.

Alas, Gordon Howie doesn't stand a chance. I say alas, because he is the candidate Scott Heidepriem could most handily destroy in November. Howie epitomizes all the reasons the Tea Party can't govern. He thought he saw a big wave coming, he grabbed his surfboard and leapt into the water... but he forgot to tie his swim trunks. And now he's caught in low tide with his tax pants down, behind $58,000 on his property taxes thanks to irresponsible land speculation.

Ken Knuppe failed to transform himself from dark horse to race horse. As a rancher never before elected to public office, he had the best chance to capitalize on any anti-insider sentiment. but he never built the campaign machine or momentum to establish himself in the public consciousness as a viable alternative or an embodiment of any new vision or policy direction folks might be looking for.

I stand by my numbers. Daugaard's going to win tomorrow and rumble hard with Heidepriem.

Republicans, feel free to prove me wrong me at the polls.

Tea Party Candidate Howie Takes $278K in Farm Subsidies

Oh, the humiliation. South Dakota gubernatorial candidate Gordon Howie has discredited the Tea Party movement better than this blog ever could. Yesterday he admits he has failed to pay $58K in property taxes after getting in too deep on land speculation. Now I learn from the Dakota War College comment section that Howie has accepted $278K in federal farm subsidies over the last 15 years. $22K of that is disaster payments.

Update 07:05: Mrs. Howie is also pulling her weight. Over the last couple years, Connie L. Howie has raked in another $33,579 in farm subsidies. These subsidies appear not to be connected with Connie's puppy-ranching operation.

Now Gordon's take is only a ninth of the welfare haul claimed by another Tea Party fave, U.S. House candidate Kristi Noem. Where, oh, where are the true conservatives? Where are the politicians so principled in their opposition to the soul-sapping power of federal handouts that they have refused to take advantage of the status quo?

The only other gubernatorial candidate who appears to have cashed in on farm subsidies is rancher Ken Knuppe from Buffalo Gap. His take since 1995: $43,046, all disaster payments disbursed in four years. Of course, his dad Ray and some other Knuppes around New Underwood have hauled in more of those federal dollars.

I might try to be charitable and say that the prevalence of farm welfare payments even among notable conservatives simply demonstrates how much the current agribusiness system relies on government support, from which you may argue that we need either to radically restructure the Farm Bill or to acknowledge that Tea Party talk of getting rid of government is empty, impractical windbaggery.

But Howie deserves no charity. Consider: in the last two years alone, Howie has taken over $113K in farm subsidies. That's almost twice the amount that he has declined to pay on his property taxes over the same period. Wow. This behavior shows he is no principled politician. He is a shyster, an opportunist, a land-grabbing, tax-dodging, welfare-slurping salesman willing to do anything to make a buck, including cheating the taxpayers.

But hey, welcome to the real face of the Tea Party. It's not about the common man. It's not about the Constitution or God or fighting communism. It's about big business putting on a puppet show to distract you from their casino capitalism.

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Gordon Howie is a personable guy who also happens to be so far off between Saturn and Pluto that we, as South Dakota voters, would be irresponsible to allow him to hold office again. And, Republicans would be foolish to advance his candidacy. Gordon's primary issue is bringing God to government. His God [Michael Sanborn, "Governor? Part Deux," Decorum Forum, 2010.05.26].

Daugaard Clear Favorite Among Liberal Blog Readers

GOP friends, is that a good thing?

The latest Madville Times poll asked readers "Which Republican is best qualified to be South Dakota's next governor?"

Dennis Daugaard	58% (105 votes)
Dave Knudson	17% (31)
Scott Munsterman	12% (23)
Gordon Howie	7% (13)
Ken Knuppe	3% (6)

Granting a margin of error for online polls slightly larger than the Jim River Valley, what alternative hypotheses might we frame from these results?

1. The sensible read: The GOP primary will go the way the conventional wisdom expects, with Dennis Daugaard's three-year fundraising campaign swamping all comers.
2. The whisker read: Republicans think more like my wife than I about handlebar mustaches. (Or maybe Knuppe just needs to big mutton chops!)
3. The skeptical read: The fine young folks working in the Daugaard campaign office are spending too much time on the Internet.
4. The right-wing read: The liberal readers of the Madville Times clearly prefer Progressive Republicans-in-Name-Only to brave and pure conservatives like Gordon Howie who know that nothing is more important than fighting the culture war.

I'm willing to speculate at this point that South Dakota's gubernatorial candidates will come out in the primary in the same order as this poll... with the possible exception that Munsterman and Howie might swap places, given Howie's potential to coalesce the wingnut vote. The most interesting question may be whether Daugaard can get the mainstream of the party to close ranks and give him a clear majority on June 8.

SDGOP Mud Wrestling Begins; Dark Horses, Keep Riding!

The Dave Knudson for Governor campaign sends me its fun little press release tweaking Dennis Daugaard for his apparent flip-flop on Governor Rounds's budget.

Part of me goes Tee-hee! at the prospect of Republican mud-wrestling. But part of me thinks of 2002 and gets a little antsy. Daugaard and Knudson have their differences, but they are cut of similar pragmatist cloth. They'll lead the fight for the mainstream Republican vote.

But as they start fighting—and they will, they have to, that's a primary reality—they may find themselves rolling down the same road as Steve Kirby and Mark Barnett in 2002: the road to defeat at the hands of a dark horse challenger.

And who are our dark horses this year?

Well, there's rancher Ken Knuppe, who's probably going to Wasson out on us any day now.

There's Scott Munsterman, whose events calendar does look distressingly empty this month. I wouldn't go so far as to say the wheels are coming off the Munsterman campaign, although his campaign manager has certainly been making a push to supplement his income with more blog ads.* I find it hard to believe that Munsterman would bail on the campaign after selling his business and driving all over kingdom come last year. If the two big guys are fighting, why not stay and fight to be the Mike Rounds surprise of 2010?

Because, as Badlands Blue points out, there's another dark horse who may have an even better shot at gobbling up the remnants of a GOP electorate split by a Knudson–Daugaard bloodbath: Gordon Howie. Yes, he's a nut, but he might be the right kind of nut.

Daugaard and Knudson can split the sensible GOP–Chamber of Commerce vote. Munsterman has that good-old fundagelical Wesleyanism in him, but for all his signals to the theocracy crowd, he's still a relatively practical policy wonk (read the briefs, read the book). The radical right knows Munsterman isn't quite the rabid anti-abortion crusader of their dreams.

The great non-wonk right that votes on nothing but fetuses and fags† knows Gordon Howie is their man. He's built his reputation in the crusade for theocracy. The moment he submits his petitions for governor, he has a lock on the Unruh block of the GOP. Munsterman will be left playing for the scraps of the sensible Republicans, and unless he and Knudson roll over to save the party, Howie could be the nominee.

...at which point, Heidepriem wins.

Gee, I guess all of me is saying, Tee-hee!

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*Powers's latest ads include the Pothole Fairy! Hmmm... conservative blogger advertises for lobby supporting more government spending—wrap your brain around that one!.

†I apologize now to my friends on the left who may be offended by my use of the term. I use it for alliteration and to capture the homophobic thinking the Howie crowd's bullying and bias demonstrate. As always, the comment section is open.

Reasons I Like the Munsterman Campaign So Far

As a registered Dem who will hoot and holler for Ron Volesky and then vote for Scott Heidepriem in November, I should be focusing on what the noisiest Republican in the governor's race is doing wrong and would do wrong as governor.

There will be time (and material) for that. But on this glorious South Dakota State Fair weekend, I'm feeling generous. And heck, if I can find things I agree with the Madison Glenn Beck fan club on, I can find good things to say about the Scott Munsterman campaign. I may not know head from hindquarters on winning elections (I've lost two here in Madison, twenty years apart), but on strategy, I see the Munsterman machine making a few good moves:

1. Making noise: I've had some interesting discussions with fellow politics watchers (and players!) about the merits of early campaigning. I still wish we could wait until January 1 or even April 1 to have a nice, concentrated campaign when everyone's listening. But if I were Munsterman, challenging two GOP big dogs with better statewide recognition and bigger money, I'd be taking the same tack: pumping out the press releases, touring the state, doing blog interviews, grabbing all the free press I could. Every time Munsterman's name appears in print, even amidst snark from some pinko secular humanist on Lake Herman, he gains recognition and forestalls being relegated to the position of third man in a two-man race. (Heck, criticism from liberal blogs might even help Munsterman raise his stock among the voters in his immediate challenge, the Republican primary.)
   
2. Putting challengers on defensive: Munsterman is laying land mines for his challengers. In explaining how he'll address South Dakota's budget deficit, Munsterman highlights the growth of state government and reliance on reserves under the Rounds-Daugaard administration, thus challenging opponent Dennis Daugaard to either defend or distance himself from his boss. In his missive to the state legislature's Medicaid Reimbursement Study committee, Munsterman challenges opponent David Knudson to defend his indefensible proposal to tax medical services, the very issue that clinched PP's support for the Munsterman campaign.
3. Targeting key constituencies: His talk on small schools targets the small towns (and he manages to phrase it in free-market language for the Milton Friedman fans). His interview with Pastor Steve "All Abortion All the Time" Hickey sets off my alarm bells, but it rings the church bell for South Dakota's fundamentalist voters who need the smell of red (herring) meat to draw them to the polls. And heck, Munsterman's drive across the state for a YouTube interview in Wasta on Hubba's House makes a grab for the constituency of Hubba's West River neighbor and hat, ranch, and manly-mustache kinsman Ken Knuppe. It may be early, and a majority of folks may not be paying attention, but Munsterman is giving the opinion leaders in those constituencies who are listening just the right hooks to remind them to mention Munsterman when the primary gets closer.

Harbor no illusions that Munsterman has positioned himself as a frontrunner: George Foreman looked good in early rounds, too, until Ali decided the time was right to throw punches.

As I recall, Munsterman sold his practice so he could campaign full-time for the job he feels he is "supposed to do" (I'm listening for the "God told me to" line). Given the magnitude of that gamble, I can imagine Munsterman thinking, "I could hold back, wait for January to campaign hard... but then I'd feel like I didn't give it my all." If you're going to go for something big, you might as well go all out. Munsterman is doing just that, and I commend him for that.

Candidate Knuppe: Democracy About Participation

Even with hat and handlebar 'stache, newly declared South Dakota gubernatorial candidate Ken Knuppe (pronounced /k-NOO-pee/ on SDPB this morning) won't get me to trade in my Dems membership and campaign for him. The Buffalo Gap rancher and fellow SDSU grad does, however, have down the talking points that make bloggers smile. At his campaign kick-off in Rapid City yesterday, Knuppe spoke of increasing citizen involvement in government:

Our government is not just for the wealthy or for those families who have been in politics for generations. Our government is for all people. It should be run so that we can all understand it and so that we can all participate in it as well.

Our society has slowly gotten into a mindset that the people in office are the ones with power. This simply isn't true. The most powerful person in a democracy is the voter. I want to empower South Dakotans to take advantage of that [Ken Knuppe, quoted in "Rancher Announces for GOP Gubernatorial Nomination," AP via Mitchell Daily Republic, 2009.01.29].

In other words, the government is us. Knuppe sounds the right note in challenging the established powers. Of course, just like my favorite presidential candidate, he has a long climb ahead to turn that populist ideology into a practical and effective campaign against those established powers who've been fundraising. Keep it interesting, Ken!

p.s.: If one can judge from the first things out of a candidate's mouth, Knuppe's Issues page is encouraging: economy, small business, agriculture, education... and not a word about abortion, gay marriage, or even guns. Can we keep it that way?

Herseth Sandlin for Governor? Don't Order Those Inaugural Ball Tickets Yet...

I told myself I wasn't going to say a word about the 2010 election until, well, 2010. But Kevin Woster's Mt. Blogmore musings over Stephanie Herseth Sandlin's chances at the governor's seat, if she runs for it, got me thinking.

Woster offers a number of reasons that we Dems shouldn't think we've got the governor's office in the bag if SHS throws her hat in that ring. The most relevant reasons have dollar signs in front of them, like Dennis Daugaard's $400K in the bank at the end of last year. Of course, if Dave Knutson really can raise a million, and if the Republicans drain their war chests in a bruising primary brawl, that strength could disappear.

Also don't forget that deep down, every South Dakota voter knows South Dakota is a welfare state, and we like sending Republicans to Pierre to keep our taxes down and Dems to Washington to bring home the pork to make up for the shortfall.

In terms of pure campaigning, I would never underestimate a Groton National Forensic League veteran (not to mention a national tournament orator!). Nonetheless, eager Dems might also want to note that SHS hasn't faced a tough election since 2004. South Dakota's Republicans have seemed willing to let our lone seat in Congress go without much of a fight. Threaten the GOP with a historic surrender of the South Dakota veto pen to a Democrat, and they might break out the brass knuckles. (Don't think they'll hit a girl? All's fair....)

Bets on the race now are silly. We don't even know which horses are running, let alone whether they'll be running in a recession, a depression, or Year Two of the Glorious American Restoration. Nonetheless, for kicks and giggles and New Year's cocktail chatter, here are the Madville Times early odds on who could beat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin:

Dennis Daugaard: even. (Fundraising since last year!)
Scott Munsterman: 1.5 to 1 (Exectuive experience! Alas, he'll catch some Joe the Plumber heck in the primary for ruling the People's Socialist Republic of Brookings. And Mr. Mayor, switch off that automatic audio on the website!)
Dave Knudson: 3 to 1. (SHS can play the anti-Sioux Falls bias against Knudson, who just won't look as good on a tractor.)
Ken Knuppe: 10 to 1 (if he could beat his 50 to 1 odds in the primary. I want to believe in the handlebar 'stache, but I know better.)