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Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Primary Prediction: Nelson 40%, Curd 31%, Hickey 29%

Pastor Steve Hickey has taken my advice to get off the abortion horse and expand his political horizons... and how! This morning he's joining the field of candidates vying to unseat our Democratic Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin.

Hickey's outspokenness and untraditional positions on issues like Native Americans and the Black Hills will bring back some of potential for interesting debate that we lost when Thad Wasson bailed. hickey also brings whiskers back to the race (Steve! Do not shave!). And with a campaign slogan like "Give Congress a Hickey!" how can he lose?

Here's how: Pastor Hickey and Dr. R. Blake Curd now split the angry conservative and fundagelical vote. Hickey pulls ahead with coherent conservatism as Curd proves himself a Tea Party faker... but then Curd cries "Indian lover!" and scares the hard base away from a candidate who wins praise from a liberal blogger for proposing reparations to Native Americans. The Chamber of Commerce Republicans run for the safety of Secretary of State Chris Nelson.

Final primary vote: Nelson 40%, Curd 31%, Hickey 29%. I want to give Hickey second place, as I think he'll cream Curd on personality and communication... but I really worry the Native American issue won't play well among GOP primary voters. Republicans, please prove me wrong.

Pastor Hickey, make the most of it. Lead the conversation.

But after June 8, the race gets boring again.

Well, heck—that calculus lasted for about ten minutes. Darn you, Kristi Noem!

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